Spatio-temporal prediction of climate and wildfire in Hugumbrda Grat-Kahsu forest, Tigray: priority for early warning

Abstract

Ethiopia’s forest fires are causing biodiversity loss and ecosystem destruction, highlighting the need for preventative measures. However, there is limited knowledge regarding the future impact of climate on forest fires in Ethiopia. Hence, this study primarily examines the past and future climate patterns and their potential impact on occurrence of wildfires. Climate data from the baseline (1980–2020) were projected for the future period (2021–2099) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios using R-software. The trends in climate were analysed using Anclim and Weather-Datatool software. To estimate the occurrence of fire, Keetch-Byram-Drought-Index was calculated using climate data and antecedent soil moisture. The result of the study indicates a projected increase in temperature, with variation in precipitation. A moderate fire risk is projected in 2021–2039 that increases to moderate-to-high probability in 2040–2069 and 2070–2099. In the future, the annual severity of fires will be 27.2–27.8% moderate and 3.3–7.8% high. The highest risk of fire will be experienced in the dry season, more in the 2070–2099 under RCP8.5 scenario. Based on the analysis this study concludes that climate change is expected to have an impact on the occurrence of wildfires. The study emphasizes the importance of taking proactive measures for effective fire management.