Abstract:
Background: Below-normal availability of water for a considerable period of time induces occurrence of drought.
This paper investigates the Spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological drought under changing climate. The
climate change was analyzed using delta based statistical downscaling approach of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in R software
packages. The meteorological drought was assessed using the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI).
Results: The result of climate change projections showed that the average annual minimum temperature will be
increased by about 0.8–2.9 °C. The mean annual maximum temperature will be also increased by 0.9–3.75 °C. The rainfall
projection generally showed an increasing trend, it exhibited an average annual increase of 3.5–13.4 % over the
study area. The projected drought events reached its maximum severity indicated extreme drought in the years 2043,
2044, 2073, and 2074. The RDI value shows drought will occurred after 1–6 and 2–7 years under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5
emission scenarios respectively over the study area. Almost more than 72 % of the current and future spatial coverage
of drought in the study area will be affected by extreme drought, 22.3 % severely and 5.57 % also moderate drought.
Conclusions: Therefore, the study helps to provide useful information for policy decision makers to implement different
adaptation and mitigation measures of drought in the region.
