Abstract:
Sustainable food production is not negotiable if food security is to be achieved.
Recent statistics show increasing food insecurity issues in Nigeria despite
government policy and programmes in the agricultural sector. The study
specifically described agriculture growth trend under three policy regimes and
analysed the effects of agricultural sector policy on food security in Nigeria
between 1960 and 2020. Secondary data on agricultural output, gross deficit
financing, labour employed in the agricultural sector, land, and population were
obtained from World Development Indicators (WDI) of the World Bank, Food and
Agriculture Organization Statistics (FAOSTAT), Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), and
National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The data were analysed using trend analysis
and Dummy Variable Regression (DVR) model. The Instantaneous Growth Rate
(IGR) and compound growth rate (CGR) were respectively 3 percent and 7.2
percent in 1960 – 1969, 0.5 percent and 1.2 percent in 1970 – 1985, and 3.4
percent and 8.1 percent in 1986 – 2020; the country experienced stagnated pattern
of growth in the agriculture sector within the oil boom and policy reconstruction
period with an instantaneous and compound growth rate of 0.5 percent and 1.2
percent, respectively. An IGR and CGR of 3.4 percent and 8.1 percent,
respectively were recorded during the policy stabilization era with an accelerating
growth pattern. The intercept of agricultural output and per capita food production
of the period with complete agricultural policy document differs from the period with
no policy document by 36.8 percent and 39.8 percent, respectively, revealing an
increase in the value of agricultural output and per capita food production in the
period with a national policy document. The study concludes that availability of
agricultural sector policy document directly impacts food security. The postestimation
tests on the models confirmed that policy implications emanating from
this study are adoptable to improve food security in Nigeria through the agricultural
sector policy. Proper and efficient policy mix to support agricultural production was
recommended.
